Juan Holguín, Sergio Ocampo, Sergio Salgado
(2026).
Markup Accounting.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We show that markup dispersion is concentrated among similarly-sized firms and develop an oligopolistic model with demand elasticity shifters that accounts for the full joint distribution of markups and firm size.
Bence Bardoczy, Gideon Bornstein, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Monopsony Power and the Transmission of Monetary Policy.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We show that firms with high monopsony power respond less to monetary policy and that the decline in labor market power since the 1980s has amplified the output effects of monetary policy.
Cristina Gualdani, Elena Pastorino, Aureo De Paula, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We prove identification of labor market models with human capital acquisition, learning, and sorting, and show that differences in learning opportunities help explain low measured sorting despite high firm-worker complementarity.
Mario Giarda, Ignacio Rojas, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Characterizing Income Risk in Chile and the Role of Labor Market Flows.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We characterize Chilean income dynamics using 21 years of administrative data, finding declining inequality but rising volatility and negative skewness driven by within-job and between-employer earnings fluctuations.
Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Skewed Business Cycles.
Working Paper.
We show that the skewness of firm-level growth rates is robustly procyclical across the U.S. and 52 countries, and argue that recessions combine negative mean, positive uncertainty, and negative skewness shocks.
Mons Chan, Guangbin Hong, Serdar Ozkan, Joachim Hubmer, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Scalable versus Productive Technologies.
Working Paper.
We disentangle returns to scale from TFP across firms and show that larger firms operate more scalable—but not necessarily more productive—technologies, amplifying efficiency losses from financial frictions.
Sergio Salgado, Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, John Sabelhaus
(2023).
Evaluating the Great Micro Moderation.
Working Paper.
We show that U.S. worker income volatility has been stable or declining since the 1950s—contradicting survey-based beliefs—and link this trend to declining firm-side volatility.
Sergio Salgado
(2020).
Technical Change and Entrepreneurship.
Working Paper.
I argue that skill-biased technical change and falling capital prices explain three-quarters of the decline in U.S. entrepreneurship by raising the returns to high-skill wage employment.