Mons Chan, Sergio Salgado, Ming Xu
(2026).
Heterogeneous Passthrough from TFP to Wages.
Working Paper.
Journal of Labor Economics (Accepted).
UPDATED DRAFT.
We estimate how firms’ productivity shocks pass through to hourly wages, finding an average passthrough of 0.08 that is twice as large for negative shocks, consistent with labor market power.
Joachim Hubmer, Elin Halvorsen, Sergio Salgado, Serdar Ozkan
(2025).
Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy?.
Working Paper.
Econometrica (Conditionally Accepted).
UPDATED DRAFT.
We decompose the excess wealth of the top 0.1% into saving rates, inheritances, returns, and labor income using Norwegian administrative data, revealing distinct “New Money” and “Old Money” dynamics.
Bence Bardoczy, Gideon Bornstein, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Monopsony Power and the Transmission of Monetary Policy.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We show that firms with high monopsony power respond less to monetary policy and that the decline in labor market power since the 1980s has amplified the output effects of monetary policy.
Cristina Gualdani, Elena Pastorino, Aureo De Paula, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition.
Working Paper.
FIRST DRAFT.
We prove identification of labor market models with human capital acquisition, learning, and sorting, and show that differences in learning opportunities help explain low measured sorting despite high firm-worker complementarity.
Mario Giarda, Ignacio Rojas, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Characterizing Income Risk in Chile and the Role of Labor Market Flows.
Working Paper.
Journal of Macroeconomics (Revise and Resubmit).
FIRST DRAFT.
We characterize Chilean income dynamics using 21 years of administrative data, finding declining inequality but rising volatility and negative skewness driven by within-job and between-employer earnings fluctuations.
Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Skewed Business Cycles.
Working Paper.
We show that the skewness of firm-level growth rates is robustly procyclical across the U.S. and 52 countries, and argue that recessions combine negative mean, positive uncertainty, and negative skewness shocks.
Mons Chan, Guangbin Hong, Serdar Ozkan, Joachim Hubmer, Sergio Salgado
(2025).
Scalable versus Productive Technologies.
Working Paper.
We disentangle returns to scale from TFP across firms and show that larger firms operate more scalable—but not necessarily more productive—technologies, amplifying efficiency losses from financial frictions.
Sergio Salgado, Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, John Sabelhaus
(2023).
Evaluating the Great Micro Moderation.
Working Paper.
We show that U.S. worker income volatility has been stable or declining since the 1950s—contradicting survey-based beliefs—and link this trend to declining firm-side volatility.